← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
53.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1124–1201
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1182
Q3 1340
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
